【图片散文】革命之路
yuxuan2658 2011-02-09 3267
简介
近来，世界的目光定格在阿拉伯穆斯林的抗议活动上，阿拉伯世界真会发生革命吗？
Revolutionary Road革命之路
Almost as long as there have been governments, there have been attempts to overthrow them. But what does history tell us about the recent uprisings in the Middle East?只要有政府存在，就有人试图推翻它。但是，对于近来发生在中东地区的起义叛乱，历史究竟告诉了我们什么？
BY BRITT PETERSON | FEBRUARY 7, 2011撰文：布里特·彼得森 2011.2.7
England's 1688 Glorious Revolution was short and sweet: Dutch Protestants William and Mary joined with a bloc of English parliamentarians to overthrow the Catholic King James II, and a new era of parliamentary monarchy began. Like many revolutions that came after, England's of 1688 was a discrete event that ended as soon as a new status quo could be achieved. ·1688年，英国爆发了短暂的光荣革命：荷兰新教徒威廉和玛利联合一群英国国会议员推翻了天主教国王詹姆斯二世，开创了君主立宪制的新纪元。像后来的许多革命一样，1688年的英国革命是一种离散事件，一旦一种新的现状达成，它也就结束了。
1688: Prince William of Orange landing at Torbay/Engraving by William Miller1688年：在托贝登陆的奥兰治王子威廉。雕刻：威廉·米勒（William Miller）。
Similarly, the American Revolution in 1775 did not bring "permanent revolution" to the United States. Its major contribution to worldwide revolt was the Declaration of Independence, a document intended for an international audience that became the inspiration for many revolutions to come.同样的，1775年的美国革命也没有给美国带来“永久革命”。有助于全世界起义的是他的独立宣言—一个旨在鼓舞国内外听众革命的文件。
“The Destruction of Tea at Boston Harbor”/Lithograph depicting the Boston Tea Party, by Nathaniel Currier“波士顿倾茶事件” 平版印刷：纳撒尼尔·克里尔（Nathaniel currier)
Among them, of course, was the French Revolution of 1789, which adopted the language and universal human rights justifications of the American Revolution. Unlike its American precursor, however, the French Revolution evolved into something quite different from what its instigators -- agitating for a constitutional monarchy -- had intended. Once the radical Jacobins assumed power in the early 1790s, the revolution turned bloody and extreme, culminating in the Reign of Terror, during which many thousands of people were guillotined for so-called counterrevolutionary activities.当然，还有1789年的法国革命，它冠以美国标榜的言论和权利自由。然而，和美国先驱们不一样的是：法国革命发展成为一个和鼓动者目标完全相悖的体制（他们想建立君主立宪制）。当激进的雅各宾派于18世纪90年代执掌政权以来，革命变得血腥、极端，最后，以恐怖统治告终。在这期间，成千上万的人们因所谓的反革命活动被送上了断头台。
As David A. Bell writes on Foreign Policy, describing this type of revolution, "Their leaders and supporters see regime change as only the beginning of an arduous, ambitious process of political, social, and cultural transformation that may require years, even decades, to complete. For them, the revolution is not a discrete event, but an ongoing cause. They eagerly define themselves as 'revolutionaries' and even speak of the 'permanent revolution.' Revolutions of this type generally have much stronger utopian tendencies than the others and more frequently lead to large-scale violence," as well as to expansion beyond the country's own borders.大卫A·贝尔在《外交政策》上这样描述“领导者和支持者把政权更替看作政治、社会、文化改革进程的开始，需要多年甚至几十年来完成。他们急于的把自己定义为‘革命分子’甚至‘永久革命’。这种革命比其他的革命更具乌托邦性（也就是空想），更易演变为大规模的暴力冲突”。这种革命时常超越国界，并且蔓延到邻国。
1848 was the year of revolutions across Europe, from France to modern-day Germany, from Austria to Italy. Like the uprisings sweeping the Middle East today, the revolutions of 1848 followed and fed off one another, with opposition figures consciously mimicking the rhetoric of revolutionaries past. David Armitage quotes Karl Marx describing the phenomenon, "Luther put on the mask of the Apostle Paul, the Revolution of 1789-1814 draped itself alternately in the guise of the Roman Republic and the Roman Empire, and the Revolution of 1848 knew nothing better to do than to parody, now 1789, now the revolutionary tradition of 1793-95."1848年，革命浪潮席卷了整个欧洲大陆，从法国到当代的德国，从奥地利到意大利。1848年的革命，就像今天席卷中东的起义一样，此起彼伏，反对者拙劣模仿革命者过去的言辞。戴维·阿米蒂奇（David Armitage）引用卡尔·马克思的话来描述这样的现象。“马丁·路德戴上使徒保罗的面具，于是1789-1814年的革命假借罗马共和和罗马帝国的幌子，交替上演，1848年的革命最有讽刺意义了，一会像是1789 年，一会像是1793-1795年”。
The Russian Revolution of 1917, like the French Revolution, had multiple distinct periods, and its end result didn't look much like the vision its founders had intended. While the initial uprising, the February Revolution, overthrew the czar and set up a provisional government made up of members of the czarist Duma, the October Revolution later that year -- led by Lenin and Trotsky's Bolsheviks -- demolished this stopgap structure and began a wholesale dismantlement of Russian politics and society, creating a permanent revolution that would last in one form or another for more than 70 years.1917年的俄国革命像法国革命一样，明显的分为几个阶段，但最终结果不像发起者所期望的那样。起初的二月革命，推翻了沙皇的统治，建立了一个由沙皇杜马成员组成的临时政府；以列宁和托洛茨基为首的布尔什维克党领导的十月革命推翻了这个临时机构，发起了一场大规模废除俄国政治、社会的革命，以这样或者那样的形式持续了70年。
Russian soldiers, sailors, and civilians listen to a speech by Rodzianko in the Catherine Hall of the Tauride Palace, Petrograd (St. Petersburg), during the October phase of the Russian Revolution. Hulton Archive/Getty Images十月革命期间，彼得格勒（ST.Petersburg）图哈罗德（Tauride）宫殿的凯瑟琳宫大厅上，俄国士兵、海员和平民在听罗江科（Rodzianko)的演讲。赫尔顿（Hulton）档案馆·盖提图片社。
In 1945, Ho Chi Minh led an armed uprising against French colonial rule in Vietnam that became known as the August Revolution. Reportedly a fan of George Washington, Ho Chi Minh managed to push the French south of the 16th parallel and declare the Democratic Republic of Vietnamin the north -- and began the First Indochina War in the process.1945年，胡志明在越南领导了反对法国殖民统治的武装起义，后来人们称之为八月革命。据报道，胡志明是乔治华盛顿的粉丝。胡志明设法将法国人向南打退到16°纬度线，在北方宣布成立越南民主共和国。开始了第一次印度支那战争进程。
The leader of the Vietnamese delegation Ho Chi Minh (sixth from the left) poses with French president of the provisional government Georges Bidault (fourth from the left) after talks, in June 1946 in Paris, France.1956年6月，法国巴黎。越南代表团领袖胡志明（左起第六）同法国临时政府总统乔治斯·皮杜尔（Georges Bidault）（左起第四）会后站在一起（合影）。
AFP/Getty Images法新社 盖提图片社。
The 1949 Communist Revolution in China came as the final phase of the Chinese Civil War, fought between Mao Zedong's troops and the ruling, U.S.-backed Kuomintang, or Nationalist party. The conflict phase of the revolution ended with Nationalist leader Chang Kai-shek fleeing to Taiwan; but Mao placed his country into a permanent state of "cultural revolution," similar to Stalin's collectivization projects and purges, that was immensely shocking and traumatic to the country's citizens, not to mention its economy.1949年，中国的共产主义革命最后一个阶段成了中国内战，以毛泽东为首的军队和当时的统治党派—背靠美国支持的国民党之间的战争。内战以国民党领袖蒋介石逃到台湾而告终，但是毛泽东发动了相当长的“文化大革命”，极大的震惊和创伤了国民，更不要说经济了。
Chinese Communist troops who are involved in the attack on Shanghai. Keystone/Getty Images进攻上海的中共军队 凯斯通 盖提图片社
Egypt has had revolutions before, notably in 1952, when the charismatic army officers Muhammad Naguib and Gamal Abdel Nasser overthrew the king, abolished the monarchy, and declared a republic under the banner of a secular, socialist pan-Arabism. This, of course, became known as Nasserism, after the figurehead Naguib was thrown out of power. Nasser's movement inspired several nationalist coups throughout the Muslim world, including Muammar al-Qaddafi's in Libya and Ahmed Ben Bella's in Algeria.埃及很早就爆发了革命，1952年，穆罕默德·纳吉布（Muhammad Naguib）和加麦尔·阿布德拉曼·纳赛尔（Gamal Abdel Nasser）推翻了国王的统治，废除了君主立宪制，打着世俗社会主义和泛阿拉伯主义旗帜的建立了共和国。在名誉领袖纳吉布下台后，演变为著名的纳赛尔主义（一种阿拉伯民族主义）。纳赛尔主义鼓动了穆斯林世界政变，包括利比亚的穆阿迈尔·卡扎菲（Muammar Qaddafi）政变和阿尔及利亚的艾哈迈德·本·贝拉（Ahmed Ben Bella）政变。
Meeting of the Egyptian "Free Officers" in Cairo in 1952. AFP/Getty Images会见埃及“自由主义军官”1952年 开罗 法新社 盖提图片社。
In 1959, Fidel Castro's communist guerrilla army defeated Cuba's corrupt U.S.-backed strongman ruler, Fulgencio Batista, after years of increasingly organized and targeted attacks. Castro's revolution is another example of a permanent one: His Committees for the Defense of the Revolution system began as a Soviet-style network of informers, designed to root out counterrevolutionary behavior.1959年，菲德尔·卡斯特罗（Fidel Castro）的共产党游击队经过几年有组织有目标的不懈进攻，打垮了背靠美国支持的腐败统治者，铁腕人物，富尔亨西奥•巴蒂斯塔。卡斯特罗革命是另一个典型的持久革命：他的委员会开始建立前苏联式的告发网络—革命防护体系，目的是根除反革命分子。
Cuban revolutionary Fidel Castro during an address in Cuba after Batista was forced to flee. Keystone/Getty Images巴提斯塔军队逼迫逃跑后，古巴革命主义者菲尔德·卡斯特罗在讲话。卡斯通 盖提图片社。
The wave of nationalist, anti-U.S. revolutions continued in Iran with the 1979 Islamic Revolution, which overthrew Mohammed Reza Pahlavi, who was seen both as a secularist Western toady and a corrupt autocrat. With powerful opposition leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini returning from exile, a theocracy swept into power -- launching a permanent religious revolution in which devout purity has become twinned with Iranian nationalism. Both are harshly enforced by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.1979年的伊斯兰革命推翻了在今天的西方世界里看来既世俗又腐败、又独裁的伊朗国王默哈穆德·利萨·巴列维，但伊朗的反美民族主义革命浪潮仍在继续。随着反对派领导人阿亚图拉·鲁和拉·赫梅尼（Ayatollah Ruhlllah Khomeini）的流放归来—神权政体神气十足的登上了王位，从而引爆了新一轮永久的宗教革命，从此，虔诚、纯洁的宗教与伊朗民族主义成为一对孪生兄弟，伊斯兰革命卫队是两者的坚强后盾。
Iranian protesters hold a up a poster of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini during a demonstration in Tehran against the Shah in January 1979. AFP/Getty Images1979年1月德黑兰爆发的反对伊朗国王沙赫示威游行，伊朗反对者高举着阿亚图拉·鲁和拉·赫梅尼的画像。法新社 盖提图片社。
Given the anti-Western flavor of the revolutions of the 1970s and early 1980s, it may be no surprise that the 1989 revolutions in Eastern Europe -- as Soviet bloc countries pulled away from Moscow's rule -- deliberately avoided the term. Bell writes, "Polish Solidarity leader Jacek Kuron went so far as to write in the summer of 1989, apropos of the French Revolution's bicentennial, that Poland did not want a revolution because revolutions spill too much blood. Germans refer to the events of 1989 as the 'Turning,' not the 'Revolution.' It was, above all, in Czechoslovakia that the word 'revolution' came to describe what happened in 1989, but paired with the word 'velvet' to underscore the differences from the great revolutions of the past."考虑到20世纪70年代和20世纪80年的早期的反西方主义味道浓烈，也许没有必要惊诧1989年的东欧革命—前苏联国家脱离了莫斯科的统治，这里故意避免采用这一术语。贝尔这样写道：“波兰团结领袖加赛克·卡隆（Jacek Kuron ）在1989年的夏天，就是法国革命二百周年纪念上说，波兰不需要革命，因为流血太多了；德国将1989年的事件说成‘转向’，而不是‘革命’；捷克斯洛伐克首先将1989年的事件描述为‘革命’，但在与之派对的单词‘天鹅绒’下面画线来和以往的革命加以区分”。
East German border guards stand on a section of the Berlin wall with the Brandenburg gate in the background on Nov. 11, 1989 in Berlin. GUNTHER KERN/AFP/Getty Images1989年11月11日，东德边境守卫士兵站在柏林墙上，背景是勃兰登堡门。巩特尔·科恩 法新社 盖提图片社。
Recently, permanent revolutions have seemed to be a thing of the past. Ukraine's Orange Revolution in 2004, inspired by allegations of election fraud, concluded once a revote could be called and declared fair by international observers. And, in fact, almost as soon as the revolution began, it was reversed: Viktor Yanukovych, the incumbent in 2004 who was said to have benefited from vote-rigging, won an internationally certified election in 2010 and is now the president.最近,永久革命似乎会一去不复返。因选举舞弊而引起的2004年乌克兰橙色革命，曾经进行了重新投票，但被国际观察员宣称是公正的。革命在爆发的同时，实际上就已经就变质了：维克特·亚努科维奇(Vicktor Yanukovych)，据说早在2004年任职期间就得益于选票，在2010年的国际注册大选中获胜，现在是总统。
Kiev's Central Square is empty on the eighth day of the "Orange Revolution" in Ukraine on Nov. 30, 2004. JOE KLAMAR/AFP/Getty Images2004年11月30日，也就是“橙色革命”爆发的第八天晚上，基辅中央广场一片空虚。乔·拉马尔 法新社 盖提图片社。
The recent uprising in Tunisia, which has been called the Jasmine Revolution, succeeded in unseating President Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali. But though it began for familiar reasons -- a frustrated middle class demanding basic economic liberties as well as democracy and other freedoms in the face of oppression by a Western-backed, corrupt dictator -- it's still too early to assess historically. Will the new government in Tunis continue to act as revolutionaries, or have the people's goals been met? It did, however, set off a ripple effect, as opposition groups across the Middle East began to ask: Why not us?近来在突尼斯爆发的起义，被称之为茉莉革命，成功的罢免了总统扎因·阿比丁·本·阿里。但是起因具有相似性—失意的中产阶级要求基本的经济、民主和其他形式的自由改革。在西方势力的支持和腐败独裁者的统治下，从历史的角度去评价它也仍然为时较早。突尼斯新政府是继续充当革命分子还是实现人民的意愿？然而，它确实引发了一系列的连环反应，中东的反对党该是时候询问自己了：为什么不是我们？
Graffiti adorns a hoarding as an uneasy peace hangs over the country on Jan. 21 in Tunis, Tunisia. Christopher Furlong/Getty Images围墙上的涂鸦—1月21日的突尼斯笼罩在不安当中。克里斯多夫弗隆 盖提图片社。
It's also too soon to know whether Egypt's young revolutionaries will be satisfied with a middle-ground solution -- a temporary provisional government with elections in a few months -- or whether, like the Jacobins or the Bolsheviks, they will demand a larger-scale permanent revolution. We may not know the answer for months, even years. What's clear is that the chaos of revolution can frustrate the best-laid plans -- and that even those initially responsible can't always control the wild tumbling of events.下结论为时太早，埃及的青年革命分子是否走中间道路—建立临时过渡政府，几个月后进行选举。还是像雅各宾派或者布尔什维克党，要求进行大规模的永久革命。我们或许不知道，答案要好几个月，甚至几十年才能揭晓。但有一点是清楚的，那就是混乱的革命妨碍了完美方案的实施，即使当初负责任的行为也控制不了事件本身带来的狂暴。
A youth waves Egyptian flags from a lamppost in Tahrir Square on Feb. 1 in Cairo, Egypt. Peter Macdiarmid/Getty Images2月1日，在克罗的解放广场上，一位青年在灯杆下挥舞着埃及国旗。盖提图片社：彼得·麦克迪尔米德
Britt Peterson is deputy managing editor of Foreign Policy magazine.布里特·彼得森：《外交政策》杂志社副总编。
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