Acknowledgements
Writing a book, especially on a topic as complicated as this, is hard.
I couldn’t have done it without Joe Zigmond, my brilliant editor. It would be a lie to say I was excited when I saw his first feedback, but hiswisdom has made the book immeasurably better. It’s been a privilege working together and I’ve learned a great deal. In the finalmonths of writing, when words seemed to assume a daunting finality, Lauren Howard’s sharp ideas were tremendously helpful. I’malso thankful to Siam Hatzaw for guiding me through the publication process.
Talking to practitioners and activists has been exceedingly useful. To the government officials, thank you for trusting me. To those whohave stood up against overwhelming cruelty at great personal risk: you are the inspiration that allows the rest of us to believe in a betterworld.
The book has benefited hugely from the expertise of many authorities on their subjects, who have talked to me about everything from theeconomics of dictatorship to the Parthian Empire and the proliferation of nuclear weapons. I am grateful to Allard Duursma, Curtis Bell,Seva Gunitsky, Kristen Harkness, Joseph Wright, Daron Acemoglu, Erica Frantz, Nicholas Miller, Jake Nabel, Ian Garner, AleksandrHerasimenka, Clayton Besaw, Agathe Demarais, Anton Barbashin and Larry Diamond.
I’d also like to mention the following, who have provided invaluable advice and encouragement. A special thank you to: SalvatorCusimano, Anchalee Rüland, Jürgen Brandsch, Livia Puglisi, Caspar Schliephack, Dinah Elisa Kreutz, Reid Standish, Julia Zulver, NicCheeseman, Oliver Moody, Imre Gelens, Inga Kristina Trauthig, Rowan Hamill-McMahon, Philip Mühl, Victor Cruz Aceves, Michael Jacobi,Dave Wakerley and my doctoral supervisor Christian Martin. None of this would have been possible without David Landry and Brian Klaas.
My biggest debt of all is owed to friends and family. Thank you for everything.
OceanofPDF.com
Notes
Introduction: The Golden Gun
1. Oriana Fallaci, Interview with History, Liveright, 1976, p. 267.
2. For more information about Gaddafi’s time in Paris, see Isabelle Gautier, ‘Quand Paris recevait Kadhafi en grande pompe’, FranceTélévisions, 6 April 2015, and David Pujadas, ‘Interview du colonel Kadhafi’, France 2, 11 December 2007.
3. ‘Gaddafi absolviert das Touristenprogramm’, Welt, 15 December 2007.
4. Alex Duval Smith, ‘Gaddafi Ups Tent, to Relief in Paris’, New Zealand Herald, 16 December 2007.
5. Helena Bachmann, ‘Gaddafi’s Oddest Idea: Abolish Switzerland’, Time, 25 September 2009.
6. Daniel Nasaw and Adam Gabbatt, ‘Gaddafi Speaks for More Than an Hour at General Assembly’, Guardian, 23 September 2009.
7. ‘Libya: Abu Salim Prison Massacre Remembered’, Human Rights Watch, 27 June 2012.
8. Ulf Laessing, Understanding Libya Since Gaddafi, Hurst, 2020, p. 29.
9. ‘Inside Gaddafi’s Bunker – in Pictures’, Guardian, 26 August 2011.
10. Alex Thomson, ‘Inside Gaddafi’s Secret Tunnels’, Channel 4 News, 30 August 2011,https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I3Nng9dHFLw
11. Sue Torton, ’Inside a Gaddafi Compound in Tripoli’, Al Jazeera English, 21 September 2011,https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fuAYeZE-b2U
12. ‘Libya Protests: Second City Benghazi Hit by Violence’, BBC, 16 February 2011,https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-12477275
13. Mark Memmott, ‘Gadhafi Blames “Rats” and Foreign “Agents”; Says He Will be a “Martyr” ’, National Public Radio, 22February 2011,https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2011/02/22/133960871/gadhafi-blames-rats-and-foreign-agents-says-he-will-be-a-martyr
14. ‘Muammar Gaddafi Remains Defiant’, Al Jazeera, 22 February 2011, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wElsHiTcz-4
15. ‘Timeline – Libya’s Uprising Against Muammar Gaddafi’, Reuters, 31 May 2011,https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-libya-events-idUKTRE74U3NT20110531/
16. Kevin Sullivan, ‘A Tough Call on Libya That Still Haunts’, Washington Post, 3 February 2016.
17. ‘Libya: UN Backs Action Against Colonel Gaddafi’, BBC, 18 March 2011, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-12781009
18. Associated Press, ‘Coalition Launches Military Action Against Libya’, France 24, 19 March 2011,https://www.france24.com/en/20110319-coalition-takes-military-action-against-libya
19. Kareem Fahim, ‘In His Last Days, Gaddafi Wearied of Fugitive’s Life’, New York Times, 22 October 2011.
20. Martin Chulov, ‘Gaddafi’s Last Moments: “I Saw the Hand Holding the Gun and I Saw it Fire” ’, Guardian, 20 October 2012.
21. Ibid.
22. Ibid.
23. For more information on the gun, see Gabriel Gatehouse, ‘My Search for Gaddafi’s Golden Gun’, BBC, 3 February 2016.
24. Fahim, ‘In His Last Days’.
25. Barry Malone, ‘Gaddafi Body Handed to NTC Loyalists for Burial’, Reuters, 25 October 2011.
26. Author’s calculations based on Henk Goemans, Kristian Skrede Gleditsch and Giacomo Chiozza, ‘Introducing Archigo’s: ADataset of Political Leaders’, Journal of Peace Research 46, no. 2 (2009), p. 275.
27. Barbara Geddes, Joseph Wright and Erica Frantz, ‘Autocratic Breakdown and Regime Transitions: A New Data Set’, Perspectiveson Politics 12, no. 2 (2014), p. 321.
28. David Smith, ‘Congo TV Talkshow Stormed by Armed Intruders’, Guardian, 30 December 2011.
29. Ibid.
30. Peter Fabricius, ‘DRC’s Mukungubila: A “Prophet” Stuck Down in a Nowhere Land, Just Where Kabila Wants Him’, DailyMaverick, 28 May 2017.
31. Winston Churchill, ‘The Lights Are Going Out (We Must Arm), 1938’, America’s National Churchill Museum, 16 October 1938.
32. Elisabeth Bumiller, ‘Was a Tyrant Prefigured by Baby Saddam?’, New York Times, 15 May 2004.
33. For more on Mao’s early years, see Jung Chang and Jon Halliday, Mao: The Unknown Story, Jonathan Cape, 2005.
34. Political scientist Joseph Wright, interviewed by the author, 24 May 2023.
35. Adam Przeworski, ‘Some Problems in the Study of the Transition to Democracy’, in Guillermo O’Donnell, Philippe C. Schmitterand Laurence Whitehead (eds), Transitions from Authoritarian Rule, vol. III, Johns Hopkins University Press, 1986 cited in BarbaraGeddes, Joseph Wright and Erica Frantz, How Dictatorships Work, Cambridge University Press, 2018, p. 185.
36. For a full discussion of varying definitions of regime see Geddes, Wright and Frantz, ‘Autocratic Breakdown and RegimeTransitions’, pp. 314–16.
37. For Schefke’s book with the same name, see Siegbert Schefke, Als die Angst die Seite wechselte, Transit, 2019.
38. Marat Gurt, ‘Turkmenistan to Move Gold Statue’, Reuters, 3 May 2008,https://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkmenistan-statue-idUSL0355546520080503/
39. Justin McCurry, ‘North Korea Executes Officials with Anti-Aircraft Gun in New Purge – Report’, Guardian, 30 August 2016.
40. Colm O’Regan, ‘The Rise of Inflated Job Titles’, BBC, 17 July 2012, https://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-18855099
41. Bastian Herre, Esteban Ortiz-Ospina and Max Roser, ‘Democracy’, Our World in Data, 2013,https://ourworldindata.org/democracy
42. ‘Growth in United Nations Membership’, United Nations, https://www.un.org/en/about-us/growth-in-un-membership#1945
43. Milan W. Svolik, The Politics of Authoritarian Rule, Cambridge University Press, 2012, p. 25.
44. Herre, Ortiz-Ospina and Roser, ‘Democracy’.
45. See Francis Fukuyama, The End of History and the Last Man, Free Press, 1992.
46. See, for example, Michaela Wrong, Do Not Disturb, Fourth Estate, 2021.
47. John Pomfret and Matt Pottinger, ‘Xi Jinping Says He Is Preparing China for War’, Foreign Affairs, 29 March 2023.
48. Geddes, Wright and Frantz, ‘Autocratic Breakdown and Regime Transitions’, p. 327.
Chapter 1: The Dictator’s Treadmill
1. Howard W. French, ‘A Personal Side to War in Zaire’, New York Times, 6 April 1997.
2. Richard Engel, ‘There is Something I call the Dictator’s Treadmill’, Twitter (renamed ‘X’), 25 October 2019,https://x.com/RichardEngel/status/1187520692738240513?s=20
3. ‘Median Wealth in the US Congress from 2008 to 2018, by Chamber’, Statista, 3 November 2023,https://www.statista.com/statistics/274581/median-wealth-per-member-of-us-congress-by-chamber/
4. ‘Boris Johnson Earns Nearly £1m in One Month – and Matt Hancock’s I’m a Celeb Fee Revealed’, Sky News, 27 January 2023,https://news.sky.com/story/boris-johnson-earns-nearly-1m-in-one-month-in-outside-earnings-bringing-his-total-since-2019-to-2-3m-12796180
5. ‘Country Profile’, World Bank, 2023, https://pip.worldbank.org/country-profiles/TKM
6. ‘The World Bank in Turkmenistan’, World Bank, https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/turkmenistan/overview
7. See ‘The Personality Cult of Turkmenbashi’, Guardian, 21 December 2006.
8. Robert G. Kaiser, ‘Personality Cult Buoys “Father of All Turkmen” ’, Washington Post, 8 July 2002.
9. Gulnoza Saidazimova, ‘Turkmenistan: Where is Turkmenbashi’s Money?’, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 19 November 2007.
10. The depiction of Asel’s story here is mostly based on Abdujalil Abdurasulov, ‘Kazakhstan Unrest: “If You Protest Again, We’ll KillYou” ’, BBC, 21 January 2022, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-60058972
11. Andrew Roth, ‘Kazakhstan President Nazarbayev Steps Down After 30 Years in Power’, Guardian, 19 March 2019.
12. Almaz Kumenov, ‘Kazakhstan: Street Named After President (Predictably)’, eurasianet, 30 November 2017.
13. Guy Faulconbridge, ‘West Must Stand Up to Russia in Kazakhstan, Opposition Leader Says’, Reuters, 7 January 2022,https://www.reuters.com/world/exclusive-west-must-stand-up-russia-kazakhstan-dissident-former-banker-says-2022-01-07/
14. Joanna Lillis, ‘Who Really is Kazakhstan’s Leader of the Nation?’, eurasianet, 25 October 2019,https://eurasianet.org/who-really-is-kazakhstans-leader-of-the-nation
15. Alexander Gabuev and Temur Umarov, ‘Turmoil in Kazkahstan Heralds the End of the Nazarbayev Era’, Carnegie Endowment forInternational Peace, 10 January 2022, https://carnegiemoscow.org/commentary/86163
16. Vyacheslav Abramov and Ilya Lozovsky, ‘Oliver Stone Documentary About Kazakhstan’s Former Leader Nazarbayev WasFunded by a Nazarbayev Foundation’, Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project, 10 October 2022,https://www.occrp.org/en/investigations/sidebar/oliver-stone-documentary-about-kazakhstans-former-leader-nazarbayev-was-funded-by-a-nazarbayev-foundation
17. Paolo Sorbello, ‘Kazakhstan’s Parliament Aims to Take Away Nazarbayev’s Privileges’, The Diplomat, 28 December 2022,https://thediplomat.com/2022/12/kazakhstans-parliament-aims-to-take-away-nazarbayevs-privileges/
18. Abramov and Lozovsky, ‘Oliver Stone Documentary’.
19. Anatolij Weisskopf and Roman Goncharenko, ‘A New Era for Kazakhstan’s Reelected President?’, Deutsche Welle, 21 November2022, https://www.dw.com/en/new-era-for-kazakhstans-reelected-president/a-63822032
20. Tom Burgis, ‘Nazarbayev and the Power Struggle Over Kazakhstan’s Future’, Financial Times, 13 January 2022.
21. Barbara Geddes, Joseph Wright and Erica Frantz, ‘Autocratic Breakdown and Regime Transitions: A New Data Set’, Perspectiveson Politics 12, no. 2 (2014), p. 321.
22. Cecile Mantovani, ‘Swiss Reject Initiative to Ban Factory Farming’, Reuters, 25 September 2022,https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/swiss-course-reject-initiative-ban-factory-farming-2022-09-25/
23. Geddes, Wright and Frantz, ‘Autocratic Breakdown and Regime Transitions’, p. 321.
24. This scenario is based on the argument of Kristen A. Harkness in her When Soldiers Rebel, Cambridge University Press, 2018, pp.171-2.
25. Daniel Treisman, ‘Democracy by Mistake: How the Errors of Autocrats Trigger Transitions to Freer Government’, AmericanPolitical Science Review 114, no. 3 (2020), 792–810.
26. Agence France-Presse, ‘Argentina’s Dictatorship Dug its Own Grave in Falklands War’, France 24, 30 March 2022,https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220330-argentina-s-dictatorship-dug-its-own-grave-in-falklands-war
27. David Rock, Argentina, 1516–1987, University of California Press, 1987, p. 378 cited in Treisman, ‘Democracy by Mistake’.
28. ‘Thatcher Archive Reveals Deep Divisions on the Road to Falklands War’, University of Cambridge, 22 March 2013,https://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/thatcher-archive-reveals-deep-divisions-on-the-road-to-falklands-war
29. ‘A Short History of the Falklands Conflict’, Imperial War Museums,https://www.iwm.org.uk/history/a-short-history-of-the-falklands-conflict
30. Agence France-Presse, ‘Argentina’s Dictatorship Dug its Own Grave in Falklands War’, France 24, 30 March 2022,https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220330-argentina-s-dictatorship-dug-its-own-grave-in-falklands-war
31. Abel Escribà-Folch and Daniel Krcmaric, ‘Dictators in Exile’, Journal of Politics 79, no. 2 (2017), p. 560.
32. ‘Alberto Fujimori Profile: Deeply Divisive Peruvian Leader’, BBC, 20 February 2018.
33. Escribà-Folch and Krcmaric, ‘Dictators in Exile’, p. 562.
34. Ibid., p. 563.
35. ‘Interview: Former “Newsweek” Correspondent Recalls Life and Death in Ceauşescu’s Romania’, Radio Free Europe/RadioLiberty, 16 December 2009,https://www.rferl.org/a/Interview_Former_Newsweek_Correspondent_Recalls_Life_And_Death_In_Ceausescus_Romania/1905712.html
36. The depiction of Ceauşescu’s flight from Bucharest is mostly based on Clyde Haberman’s article, ‘Upheaval in the East:Dictator’s Flight; Pilot of Helicopter Describes Ceauşescu’s Escape Attempt’, New York Times, 1 January 1990.
37. Emma Graham-Harrison, ‘ “I’m Still Nervous,” Says Soldier Who Shot Nicolae Ceauşescu’, Guardian, 7 December 2014.
38. Ibid.
39. Ibid.
40. Alan Greenblatt, ‘A Dictator’s Choice: Cushy Exile or Go Underground’, National Public Radio, 26 August 2011,https://www.npr.org/2011/08/26/139952385/a-dictators-choice-cushy-exile-or-go-underground
41. For a discussion about the importance of geographic proximity, see Escribà-Folch and Krcmaric, ‘Dictators in Exile’, pp. 563–4.
42. Daniel Krcmaric, ‘Should I Stay or Should I Go? Leaders, Exile, and the Dilemmas of International Justice’, American Journal ofPolitical Science 62, no. 2 (2018), p. 489.
43. Ibid.
44. ‘Liberia’s Taylor Begins Exile in Nigeria’, Public Broadcasting Service NewsHour, 13 August 2013,https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/africa-july-dec03-nigeria_08-13
45. Xan Rice, ‘Liberia’s Ex-leader Handed Over for War Crimes Trial’, Guardian, 30 March 2006.
46. Owen Bowcott, ‘War Criminal Charles Taylor to Serve 50-year Sentence in British Prison’, Guardian, 10 October 2013.
47. Escribà-Folch and Krcmaric, ‘Dictators in Exile’, p. 561.
48. Ben Brumfield, ‘Charles Taylor Sentenced to 50 Years for War Crimes’, CNN, 31 May 2012,https://edition.cnn.com/2012/05/30/world/africa/netherlands-taylor-sentencing/index.html
49. Escribà-Folch and Krcmaric, ‘Dictators in Exile’, p. 564.
50. Ibid.
51. ‘Q&A: The Case of Hissène Habré Before the Extraordinary African Chambers in Senegal’, Human Rights Watch, 3 May 2016,https://www.hrw.org/news/2016/05/03/qa-case-hissene-habre-extraordinary-african-chambers-senegal#3
52. Diego Lopes da Silva et al., ‘Trends in World Military Expenditure, 2021’, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute,https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2022-04/fs_2204_milex_2021_0.pdf
53. ‘Taliban Says Doha Office Flag, Banner Raised with “Agreement of Qatar” ’, Reuters, 23 June 2013,https://www.reuters.com/article/afghanistan-peace-taliban-qatar-idINDEE95M05120130623/
54. ‘Full Text of Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr’s Inaugural Address’, Philippine Star, 30 June 2022.
55. Bernard Gwertzman, ‘For Marcos, A Restless Night of Calls to US’, New York Times, 26 February 1986.
56. Francis X. Clines, ‘The Fall of Marcos: Slipping Out of Manila; The Final Hours of Marcos: Pleading to Save Face, Then Escape in theDark’, New York Times, 26 February 1986.
57. Daniel Southerl, ‘A Fatigued Marcos Arrives in Hawaii’, Washington Post, 27 February 1986.
58. Nick Davies, ‘The $10bn Question: What Happened to the Marcos Millions?’, Guardian, 7 May 2016.
59. David Smith, ‘Thomas Lubanga Sentenced to 14 Years for Congo War Crimes’, Guardian, 10 July 2012.
60. Krcmaric, ‘Should I Stay or Should I Go?’ at p. 496.
61. ‘How the Mighty Are Falling’, The Economist, 5 July 2007.
62. Christina Lamb, ‘Trapped in the Palace’, The Spectator, 28 May 2011.
Chapter 2: The Enemy Within
1. ‘Chad Habre Accuses Sudan of Complicity in April Coup Plot’, BBC, Summary of World Broadcasts, 12 May 1989, cited in PhilipRoessler, ‘The Enemy Within’, World Politics 63, no. 2 (2011), 300–46 at pp. 312–13.
2. Robert K. Massie, Catherine the Great, Head of Zeus, 2019, p. 312.
3. Ibid.
4. E. R. Dashkova (ed. and trans. Kyril Fitzlyon), The Memoirs of Princess Dashkov, 1958, pp. 78–80, cited in Simon Sebag Montefiore,Catherine the Great & Potemkin, Weidenfeld & Nicolson, 2001, p. 50.
5. Massie, Catherine the Great, pp. 305–21.
6. Ibid., p. 297.
7. Sebag Montefiore, Catherine the Great, p. 44.
8. Ibid., p. 36.
9. Arkhiv kniaz’ia Vorontsova, XXI, 49 (ed. P.I. Bartenev), cited in Simon Dixon, Catherine the Great, Ecco, 2010, p. 122.
10. Sebag Montefiore, Catherine the Great, p. 51.
11. Massie, Catherine the Great, p. 315.
12. Dixon, Catherine the Great, p. 123.
13. Massie, Catherine the Great, p. 316.
14. Erica Frantz, Authoritarianism, Oxford University Press, 2018, p. 56.
15. The following section is based on Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith’s The Dictator’s Handbook, Public Affairs, 2012.
16. ‘Population’, Our World in Data, https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/population
17. The depiction of North Korea’s famine is mostly based on Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland’s Famine in North Korea:Markets, Aid, and Reform, Columbia University Press, 2007.
18. The story recounted here is based on Ju Hyun-ah’s ‘The Arduous March’, Words Without Borders, 1 May 2013,https://wordswithoutborders.org/read/article/2013-05/the-arduous-march/
19. Ibid.
20. Min Yoon, ‘The Arduous March: Growing Up in North Korea During Famine’, Guardian, 13 June 2014.
21. Ju Hyun-ah, ‘The Arduous March’.
22. Haggard and Noland, Famine in North Korea, p. 68.
23. Daniel Byman and Jennifer Lind, ‘Pyongyang’s Survival Strategy: Tools of Authoritarian Control in North Korea’, InternationalSecurity 35, no. 1 (2010), 44–74 at p. 62.
24. Haggard and Noland, Famine in North Korea, p. 11.
25. See Ronald Wintrobe, The Political Economy of Dictatorship, Cambridge University Press, 1998, pp. 20–40.
26. de Mesquita and Smith, The Dictator’s Handbook, p. 16.
27. Niccolò Machiavelli (trans. Tim Parks), The Prince, Penguin, 2009, p. 12.
28. Edward Goldring and Austin S. Matthews, ‘To Purge or Not to Purge? An Individual-Level Quantitative Analysis of Elite Purges inDictatorships’, British Journal of Political Science 53, no. 2 (2023), 575–93 at p. 575.
29. Milan W. Svolik, The Politics of Authoritarian Rule, Cambridge University Press, 2012.
30. For an analysis of the immediate aftermath of coup attempts see Laure Bokobza et al., ‘The Morning After: Cabinet Instability andthe Purging of Ministers after Failed Coup Attempts in Autocracies’, Journal of Politics 84, no. 3 (2020), 1437–52.
31. Arianne Chernock, ‘Queen Victoria and the “Bloody Mary of Madagascar” ’, Victorian Studies 55, no. 3 (2013), 425–49 at p.433.
32. Stephen Ellis, ‘Witch-Hunting in Central Madagascar 1828–1861’, Past & Present 175 (2002), 90–123 at p. 99.
33. Samuel Pasfield Oliver, Madagascar: An Historical and Descriptive Account of the Island and its Former Dependencies, Macmillan,1886, p. 85.
34. Ibid., p. 80.
35. Ida Pfeiffer, The Last Travels of Ida Pfeiffer: Inclusive of a Visit to Madagascar, Harper & Brothers, 1861, p. 240.
36. Oliver, Madagascar, p. 86.
37. Brian Klaas, ‘Vladimir Putin Has Fallen Into the Dictator Trap’, Atlantic, 16 March 2022.
38. Adam E. Casey and Seva Gunitsky, ‘The Bully in the Bubble’, Foreign Affairs, 4 February 2022.
39. Andrew Roth, ‘Putin’s Security Men: The Elite Group Who “Fuel His Anxieties” ’, Guardian, 4 February 2022.
40. Ibid.
41. Casey and Gunitsky, ‘The Bully in the Bubble’.
42. Yi Han-yong, Taedong River Royal Family: My 14 Years Incognito in Seoul, Dong-a Ilbo, 1996, cited in Anna Fifield, The GreatSuccessor, John Murray, 2019, p. 14.
43. Fifield, The Great Successor, p. 43.
44. Ibid.
45. Jung H. Pak, ‘The Education of Kim Jong-un’, Brookings, February 2018,https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-education-of-kim-jong-un/
46. Mark Bowden, ‘Understanding Kim Jong Un, the World’s Most Enigmatic and Unpredictable Dictator’, Vanity Fair, 12 February2015.
47. Jerrold M. Post, ‘Saddam Hussein of Iraq: A Political Psychology Profile’, Political Psychology 12, no. 2 (1991), 279–89 at p. 284.
48. Erica Goode, ‘The World; Stalin to Saddam: So Much for the Madman Theory’, New York Times, 4 May 2003.
49. Cited in Dave Gilson, ‘The CIA’s Secret Psychological Profiles of Dictators and World Leaders Are Amazing’, Mother Jones, 11February 2015.
50. Jerrold M. Post and Robert S. Robins, When Illness Strikes the Leader, Yale University Press, 1993, p. 55.
51. Ibid.
52. Alejandro Artucio, ‘The Trial of Macias’, International Commission of Jurists, November 1979, p. 16.
53. Ibid., p. 8.
54. Post and Robins, When Illness Strikes the Leader, pp. 55–6.
55. Associated Press, ‘Killings Reported in Equatorial Guinea’, New York Times, 25 January 1978.
56. Ibid.
57. Artucio, ‘The Trial of Macias’, p. 11.
58. Paul Kenyon, Dictatorland, Head of Zeus, 2018, pp. 260 and 262.
59. Randall Fegley, ‘Equatorial Guinea, An African Tragedy’, Anthropology and Sociology, Series II, vol. 39, p. 52 cited in Kenyon,Dictatorland, p. 262.
60. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith, ‘Political Succession: A Model of Coups, Revolution, Purges and Everyday Politics’,Journal of Conflict Resolution 61, no. 4 (2015), 707–43 at p. 708.
61. Artucio, ‘The Trial of Macias’, p. 16.
62. Kenyon, Dictatorland, p. 262.
63. Cited in Simon Baynham, ‘Equatorial Guinea: The Terror and the Coup’, World Today 36, no. 2 (1980), 65–71 at p. 65.
64. Kenyon, Dictatorland, p. 263.
65. Ibid.
66. Ibid.
67. Associated Press, ‘Equatorial Guinea Reports Coup’, New York Times, 6 August 1979.
Chapter 3: Weakening the Warriors
1. Cited in Paul Kenyon, Dictatorland, Head of Zeus, 2018, p. 162.
2. Nicholas Marshall, ‘United States of America v. Cherno Njie (01) and Papa Faal (02)’, United States District Court for the District ofMinnesota, 3 January 2015, https://www.justice.gov/file/189936/download
3. Much of the depiction of the attempted Gambian coup is based on Stuart A. Reid’s ‘Let’s Go Take Back Our Country’, Atlantic,March 2016.
4. ‘State of Fear’, Human Rights Watch, 16 September 2015,https://www.hrw.org/report/2015/09/17/state-fear/arbitrary-arrests-torture-and-killings
5. Reid, ‘Let’s Go Take Back Our Country’.
6. Banka Manneh, interview with author, 24 February 2023.
7. Ibid.
8. Andrew Rice, ‘The Reckless Plot to Overthrow Africa’s Most Absurd Dictator’, Guardian, 21 July 2015.
9. ‘Amnesty International Report 2014/2015’, Amnesty International, 25 February 2015,https://www.amnesty.org/en/pol10-0001-2015-en-2/
10. Rice, ‘The Reckless Plot’.
11. Banka Manneh interview.
12. Ibid.
13. Reid, ‘Let’s Go Take Back Our Country’.
14. Rice, ‘The Reckless Plot’.
15. Marshall, ‘United States of America v. Cherno Njie (01) and Papa Faal (02)’.
16. Ibid.
17. Rice, ‘The Reckless Plot’.
18. Marshall, ‘United States of America v. Cherno Njie (01) and Papa Faal (02)’.
19. Reid, ‘Let’s Go Take Back Our Country’.
20. Ibid.
21. Marshall, ‘United States of America v. Cherno Njie (01) and Papa Faal (02)’.
22. Reid, ‘Let’s Go Take Back Our Country’.
23. Ibid.
24. Ibid.
25. Banka Manneh interview.
26. Armin Rosen, ‘A Prominent Dissident Was Just Charged in the US with Plotting to Overthrow One of Africa’s Most OppressiveGovernments’, Business Insider, 22 March 2015.
27. Banka Manneh interview.
28. Rosen, ‘A Prominent Dissident’.
29. Jonathan M. Powell and Clayton L. Thyne, ‘Global Instances of Coups from 1950 to 2010: A New Dataset’, Journal of PeaceResearch 48, no. 2 (2011), 249–59 at p. 252.
30. King James Bible, 1 Kings xvi, 11.
31. Edward F. Campbell, ‘A Land Divided: Judah and Israel from the Death of Solomon to the Fall of Samaria’, pp. 206–41, in MichaelD. Coogan (ed.), The Oxford History of the Biblical World, Oxford University Press, 2001.
32. King James Bible, 1 Kings xvi, 18.
33. Powell and Thyne, ‘Global Instances of Coups from 1950 to 2010’.
34. Ibid.
35. ‘Britain’s Simon Mann Sentenced to 34 Years for Coup Plot’, France 24, 7 July 2008,https://www.france24.com/en/20080707-britains-simon-mann-sentenced-34-years-coup-plot-equatorial-guinea
36. Cecilia Macaulay, ‘Equatorial Guinea’s Obiang: World’s Longest-serving President Eyes Re-election’, BBC, 20 November 2022,https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-63674539
37. ‘Equatorial Guinea’, OPEC, https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/about_us/4319.htm
38. ‘GDP Per Capita’, Our World in Data, 2023,https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/gdp-per-capita-worldbank?tab=chart&country=GNQ~TUR~MEX~KOR
39. Simon Mann, Cry Havoc, John Blake, 2012.
40. Ian Evans, ‘We Were Betrayed, Claim Mercenaries Jailed After Ex-SAS Man’s Failed Coup’, Guardian, 25 April 2010.
41. Ibid.
42. Ibid.
43. Kim Sengupta, ‘An African Adventure: Inside Story of the Wonga Coup’, Independent, 12 March 2008.
44. David Pallister and James Sturcke, ‘Simon Mann Gets 34 Years in Equatorial Guinea Jail’, Guardian, 7 July 2008.
45. Jonathan Miller, ‘Mann: I Was Not the Main Man’, Channel 4, 11 March 2008,https://www.channel4.com/news/articles/politics/international_politics/mann+i+was+not+the+main+man/1761247.html
46. Antony Barnett and Martin Bright, ‘Revealed: How Britain Was Told Full Coup Plan’, Guardian, 28 November 2004.
47. Malcolm R. Easton and Randolph M. Siverson, ‘Leader Survival and Purges After a Failed Coup d’Etat’, Journal of Peace Research55, no. 5 (2018), 596–608 at p. 599.
48. Brian Klaas, ‘Why Coups Fail’, Foreign Affairs, 17 July 2016.
49. Esme Kirk-Wade and Zoe Mansfield, ‘UK Defence Personnel Statistics’, House of Commons Library, 18 July 2023,https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7930/CBP-7930.pdf
50. Paul Collier and Anke Hoeffler, ‘Coup Traps: Why Does Africa Have So Many Coups d’Etat?’, working paper, Centre for the Studyof African Economies, August 2005, https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:49097086-8505-4eb2-8174-314ce1aa3ebb
51. Naunihal Singh, Seizing Power, Johns Hopkins University Press, 2014, p. 66.
52. James T. Quinlivan, ‘Coup-Proofing: Its Practice and Consequences in the Middle East’, International Security 24, no. 2 (1999),131–65 at p. 141.
53. Williamson Murray and Kevin M. Woods, The Iran–Iraq War: A Military and Strategic History, Cambridge University Press, 2014, p.287 cited in Caitlin Talmadge, The Dictator’s Army, Cornell University Press, 2015, p. 154.
54. Hanna Batatu, The Old Social Classes and the Revolutionary Movements of Iraq: A Study of Iraq’s Old Landed and CommercialClasses and of Its Communists, Ba’athists, and Free Officers, Princeton University Press, 1978, p. 1095 cited in Quinlivan,‘Coup-Proofing’, p. 144.
55. Quinlivan, ‘Coup-Proofing’, p. 144.
56. Ibid., p. 150.
57. Cameron S. Brown, Christopher J. Fariss and R. Blake McMahon, ‘Recouping After Coup-Proofing: Compromised MilitaryEffectiveness and Strategic Substitution’, International Interactions 41, no. 1 (2016), 1–30 at p. 4.
58. Cited in ibid., pp. 4–5.
59. Quinlivan, ‘Coup-Proofing’, pp. 143–4.
60. For a detailed discussion of the consequences of violence during coups, see Erica de Bruin’s ‘Will There Be Blood? ExplainingViolence During Coups d’Etat’, Journal of Peace Research 56, no. 6 (2019), 797–811.
61. Kristen A. Harkness, When Soldiers Rebel, Cambridge University Press, 2018, p. 57.
62. Ibid., p. 39
63. Ibid., p. 36.
64. J. ’Bayo Adekson, ‘Ethnicity and Army Recruitment in Colonial Plural Societies’, Ethnic and Racial Studies 2, no. 2 (1979), 151–65at p. 161 cited in Harkness, When Soldiers Rebel, p. 37.
65. Anthony Clayton, Khaki and Blue: Military and Police in British Colonial Africa, Ohio University, 1989, p. 160 cited in Harkness, WhenSoldiers Rebel, p. 37.
66. Kristen A. Harkness, ‘The Ethnic Stacking in Africa Dataset: When Leaders Use Ascriptive Identity to Build Military Loyalty’, ConflictManagement and Peace Science 39, no. 5 (2022), 609–32 at pp. 619–20.
67. Chris Hedges, ‘Kurds Unearthing New Evidence of Iraqi Killings’, New York Times, 7 December 1991.
68. Ibid.
69. Quinlivan, ‘Coup-Proofing’, p. 151.
70. Erica de Bruin, How to Prevent Coups d’Etat, Cornell University Press, 2020.
71. Ibid., p. 97.
72. Cited in Harkness, When Soldiers Rebel, p. 146.
73. de Bruin, How to Prevent Coups d’Etat, pp. 97 and 98.
74. See ‘Ghana Voters Back Nkrumah Proposal For One-Party Rule’, New York Times, 26 January 1964.
75. de Bruin, How to Prevent Coups d’Etat, p. 96.
76. Lloyd Garrison, ‘Coup in Ghana: Elaborately Organized Upheaval’, New York Times, 5 March 1966.
77. Ibid.
78. Cited in de Bruin, How to Prevent Coups d’Etat, p. 99.
79. John J. Chin, Joseph Wright and David B. Carter, Historical Dictionary of Modern Coups d’Etat, Rowman & Littlefield, 2022, p. 438.
80. Harkness, When Soldiers Rebel, p. 73.
81. Chin, Wright and Carter, Historical Dictionary, p. 438.
Chapter 4: Rebels, Guns and Money
1. Leon Trotsky, The History of the Russian Revolution, Victor Gollancz, 1984, p. 511.
2. United Press International, ‘Thousands Dead as Quakes Strike Nicaraguan City’, New York Times, 24 December 1972.
3. ‘Case Report Nicaragua-Earthquake’, United States Agency for International Development, December 1972,https://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/pnadq757.pdf
4. ‘Earthquakes of Past Bigger Than Managua’s’, New York Times, 26 December 1972.
5. ‘Case Report Nicaragua-Earthquake’.
6. David Johnson Lee, ‘De-centring Managua: Post-earthquake Reconstruction and Revolution in Nicaragua’, Urban History 42, no. 4(2015), 663–85 at pp. 668–9.
7. United Press International, ‘Major Section of Managua to Serve as Mass Grave’, New York Times, 27 December 1972.
8. Reuters, ‘Managua Has Disappeared’, New York Times, 24 December 1972.
9. Robin Navarro Montgomery, ‘The Fall of Somoza: Anatomy of a Revolution’, Parameters 10, no. 1 (1980), 47–57 at p. 51.
10. Rose Spalding, Capitalists and Revolution in Nicaragua: Opposition and Accommodation, 1979–1993, University of North CarolinaPress, 1994, cited in Lee, ‘De-centring Managua’, p. 680.
11. Idean Salehyan, Rebels Without Borders, Cornell University Press, 2011, p. 126.
12. Alan Riding, ‘Bishops in Nicaragua Say Troops Kill Civilians in Fighting Leftists’, New York Times, 2 March 1977.
13. Montgomery, ‘The Fall of Somoza’.
14. Laurie Johnston, ‘Prize-Winning Editor Is Shot Dead in Nicaragua’, New York Times, 11 January 1978.
15. Mateo Cayetano Jarquin, ‘A Latin American Revolution: The Sandinistas, the Cold War, and Political Change in the Region,1977–1990’, doctoral dissertation (2019), Harvard University, Graduate School of Arts & Sciences, pp. 47–8.
16. Christopher Paul, Colin P. Clarke and Beth Grill, Victory Has a Thousand Fathers: Detailed Counterinsurgency Case Studies, RANDCorporation, 2010.
17. Cayetano Jarquin, ‘A Latin American Revolution’, p. 70.
18. Cynthia Gorney, ‘Somoza is Assassinated in Ambush in Paraguay’, Washington Post, 18 September 1980.
19. Max Boot, ‘The Evolution of Irregular War: Insurgents and Guerillas from Akkadia to Afghanistan’, Foreign Affairs 92, no. 2 (2013),100–14.
20. Eric Dorn Brose, German History 1789‒1871, Berghahn, 1997, p. 4.
21. Henry Louis Gates, Emmanuel Akyeampong and Steven J. Niven (eds.), Dictionary of African Biography, Oxford University Press,2011, p. 172.
22. Ibid.
23. ‘Chad Habre Accuses Sudan of Complicity in April Coup Plot’, BBC, Summary of World Broadcasts, 12 May 1989, cited in PhilipRoessler, ‘The Enemy Within’, World Politics 63, no. 2 (2011), 300–46 at pp. 312–13.
24. Associated Press, ‘Chad President Reportedly Flees and Rebels March In’, New York Times, 2 December 1990.
25. ‘Chad’s President Idriss Déby Dies After Clashes with Rebels’, BBC, 20 April 2021,https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-56815708
26. Roessler, ‘The Enemy Within’, pp. 314–15.
27. Paul Collier et al., ‘Breaking the Conflict Trap’, World Bank, 2003, p. 68,https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/ce680d98-c240-5747-a573-b4896762e5f5/content
28. Ibid.
29. Ibid.
30. F. Ngaruko and J. D. Nkurunziza, ‘Civil War and Its Duration in Burundi’, Paper prepared for the World Bank and Yale Universitycase study project The Political Economy of Civil Wars, 2002, cited in ibid., pp. 68–9.
31. Ibid., p. 72.
32. Ibid., p. 75.
33. Blaine Harden, ‘Diamond Wars: A Special Report’, New York Times, 6 April 2000.
34. Mark Shaw, ‘ “The Middlemen”: War Supply Networks in Sierra Leone and Angola’, Netherlands Institute of InternationalRelations, working paper 10, March 2003, pp. 19–20,https://www.clingendael.org/sites/default/files/2016-02/20030300_cru_working_paper_10.pdf
35. Collier et al., ‘Breaking the Conflict Trap’ .
36. Marianne Moor and Liduine Zumpolle, ‘The Kidnap Industry in Colombia’, Pax Christi Netherlands, November 2001,https://paxforpeace.nl/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/11/the-kidnap-industry-in-colombia-our-business-112001_0.pdf
37. Ibid.
38. Anja Shortland, Kidnap, Oxford University Press, 2019, p. 100.
39. Moor and Zumpolle, ‘The Kidnap Industry in Colombia’.
40. Michael L. Ross, ‘Booty Futures’, working paper, 6 May 2005, p. 11,https://www.sscnet.ucla.edu/polisci/faculty/ross/papers/working/bootyfutures.pdf
41. Ibid., pp. 11–12.
42. See Stathis N. Kalyvas, The Logic of Violence in Civil War, Cambridge University Press, 2012.
43. Adam Lockyer, ‘Foreign Intervention and Warfare in Civil Wars: The Effect of Exogenous Resources on the Course and Nature of theAngolan and Afghan Conflicts’, doctoral dissertation, University of Sydney, Department of Government and International Relations,December 2008, pp. 109–10.
44. Nathan Leites and Charles Wolf, Jr, Rebellion and Authority, Markham, 1970, pp. 128–9.
45. Jeremy M. Weinstein, Inside Rebellion, Cambridge University Press, 2007, pp. 203–4.
46. Jürgen Brandsch, interview with author, 3 February 2023.
47. This is an argument advanced by Alex de Waal in The Real Politics of the Horn of Africa, Polity, 2015, p. 53.
48. Ibid.
49. ‘Syria Refugee Crisis Explained’, United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, 14 March 2023,https://www.unrefugees.org/news/syria-refugee-crisis-explained/
50. Henry A. Kissinger, ‘The Viet Nam Negotiations’, Foreign Affairs, 1 January 1969.
51. Cited in Associated Press, ‘Colombia’s Guerilla War killed 260,000, Report Says’, CBC, 2 August 2018,https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/colombia-guerrilla-farc-death-toll-1.4771858
52. Roland Dumas, cited in Alan Riding, ‘Rebels in Control of Chad’s Capital’, New York Times, 3 December 1990.
53. ‘Supported by France, Convicted by Africa’, Human Rights Watch, 30 May 2016,https://www.hrw.org/sites/default/files/report_pdf/francehabre0616en_summaryweb_0.pdf
54. ‘France Bombed Chadian Rebels to Stop Coup d’Etat: Foreign Minister’, Reuters, 12 February 2019,https://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-chad-idUSKCN1Q11XB/
55. Ibid.
56. Lockyer, ‘Foreign Intervention and Warfare in Civil Wars’, pp. 203 and 205.
57. Vincent Schneiter, ‘La Guerre de Libération au Nouristan’, Les Temps Modernes, no. 408–9, July–August 1980, p. 240 cited in ibid.,pp. 205–6.
58. Thomas A. Marks, ‘Mao Tse-tung and the Search for 21st Century Counterinsurgency’, CTC Sentinel, 2, no. 10 (2009), 17–20 at p.18.
59. Lockyer, ‘Foreign Intervention and Warfare in Civil Wars’, p. 98.
Chapter 5: Enemies, Foreign and Domestic
1. Cited in Ulrich Pilster and Tobias Böhmelt, ‘Coup-Proofing and Military Effectiveness in Interstate Wars, 1967–99’, ConflictManagement and Peace Science 28, no. 4 (2011), 331–50 at p. 331.
2. Ibid., pp. 331–50.
3. Cigdem V. Sirin and Michael T. Koch, ‘Dictators and Death: Casualty Sensitivity of Autocracies in Militarized Interstate Disputes’,International Studies Quarterly 59, no. 4 (2015), 802–14.
4. Ben Doherty, ‘Former SAS Soldier Arrested and Charged in NSW for Alleged War Crime Over Killing of Afghan Civilian’, Guardian,20 March 2023.
5. Simon Sebag Montefiore, Stalin: The Court of the Red Tsar, Phoenix, 2004, p. 229.
6. Ibid., pp. 226–7.
7. Robert Service, Stalin, Pan, 2010, p. 343.
8. Ibid., pp. 351–2.
9. Sebag Montefiore, Stalin, p. 252.
10. Ibid., p. 237.
11. Ibid., p. 229.
12. Service, Stalin, p. 356.
13. Peter Whitewood et al., The Red Army and the Great Terror: Stalin’s Purge of the Soviet Military, University Press of Kansas, 2015.
14. Sebag Montefiore, Stalin, p. 230.
15. Robert Service, The Penguin History of Modern Russia: From Tsarism to the Twenty-first Century (3rd edition), 2009, p. 225.
16. ‘Great Purge’, Encyclopedia Britannica, 2023, https://www.britannica.com/event/Great-Purge
17. Kenneth Pollack, Armies of Sand, Oxford University Press, 2019, p. 115.
18. Ibid., pp. 115–16.
19. Kenneth Pollack, Arabs at War: Military Effectiveness, 1948–1991, University of Nebraska Press, 2002, cited in Pilster and Böhmelt,‘Coup-Proofing and Military Effectiveness in Interstate Wars, 1967‒99’, at p. 336.
20. The following section is based on Lindsey O’Rourke, Covert Regime Change, Cornell University Press, 2018.
21. Ibid., p. 2.
22. Ibid., p. 49.
23. Ibid., p. 53.
24. Evans Thomas, The Very Best Men: Four Men Who Dared; The Early Years of the CIA, Touchstone, 1995, p. 120 cited in ibid., p. 57.
25. ‘The Bay of Pigs’, John F. Kennedy Presidential Library and Museum,https://www.jfklibrary.org/learn/about-jfk/jfk-in-history/the-bay-of-pigs
26. ‘Memorandum From the President’s Special Assistant for National Security Affairs (Bundy) to President Kennedy’, United StatesDepartment of State, Office of the Historian, 8 February 1961, https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1961-63v10/d39
27. Bill Newcott, ‘After 60 Years, Bay of Pigs Disaster Still Haunts Veterans Who Fought’, National Geographic, 16 April 2021.
28. ‘The Bay of Pigs’, John F. Kennedy Presidential Library and Museum,https://www.jfklibrary.org/learn/about-jfk/jfk-in-history/the-bay-of-pigs
29. Newcott, ‘After 60 Years, Bay of Pigs Disaster Still Haunts Veterans Who Fought’.
30. ‘The Bay of Pigs Invasion’, CIA, 18 April 2016, https://www.cia.gov/stories/story/the-bay-of-pigs-invasion/
31. ‘Memorandum From the Chief of Operations in the Deputy Directorate for Plans (Helms) to Director of Central Intelli-genceMcCone’, United States Department of State, Office of the Historian, 19 January 1962,https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1961-63v10/d292
32. Alexander Smith, ‘Fidel Castro: The CIA’s 7 Most Bizarre Assassination Attempts’, NBC News, 28 November 2016,https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/fidel-castros-death/fidel-castro-cia-s-7-most-bizarre-assassination-attempts-n688951
33. Max Boot, ‘Operation Mongoose: The Story of America’s Efforts to Overthrow Castro’, Atlantic, 5 January 2018.
34. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Randolph M. Siverson and Gary Woller, ‘War and the Fate of Regimes: A Comparative Analysis’,American Political Science Review 86, no. 3 (1992), 638–49 at p. 642.
35. For the connection between protest and foreign policy, see for example Jessica Chen Weiss, Powerful Patriots: Nationalist Protest inChina’s Foreign Relations, Oxford University Press, 2014.
36. D. Sean Barnett et al., ‘North Korean Conventional Artillery’, RAND Corporation, 2020, p. 2,https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA619-1.html
37. Ibid.
38. Julian Ryall, ‘South Korea: Why is Seoul’s Population Declining?,’ Deutsche Welle, 19 June 2022,https://www.dw.com/en/south-korea-why-is-seouls-population-declining/a-62138302
39. Barnett et al., ‘North Korean Conventional Artillery’, p. 17.
40. Cameron S. Brown, Christopher J. Fariss and R. Blake McMahon, ‘Recouping After Coup-Proofing: Compromised MilitaryEffectiveness and Strategic Substitution’, International Interactions 42, no. 1 (2016), 1–30 at pp. 2 and 8.
41. Ibid., p. 8.
42. Nicholas Miller, interview with author, 9 March 2023.
43. Malfrid Braut-Hegghammer, ‘Why North Korea Succeeded at Getting Nuclear Weapons – When Iraq and Libya Failed’,Washington Post, 2 January 2018.
44. John Wright, Libya, Ernest Benn, 1969, p. 199 cited in Malfrid Brautt-Hegghammer, Unclear Physics, Cornell University Press, 2016, p.128.
45. Ibid.
46. Ibid., p. 143.
47. John K. Cooley, Libyan Sandstorm, Holt, Rinehart and Winston, 1982, p. 230 cited in Thomas Müller-Färber, ‘How the QaddafiRegime Was Driven into Nuclear Disarmament’, doctoral dissertation, Hertie School of Governance, Berlin Graduate School forTransnational Studies, June 2016, p. 162.
48. Müller-Färber, ‘How the Qaddafi Regime Was Driven into Nuclear Disarmament’, p. 162.
49. Brautt-Hegghammer, Unclear Physics, pp. 157–8.
50. Akar Bharadvaj and Kevin Woods, ‘When Strongmen Invade, They Bring Their Pathologies With Them’, War on the Rocks, 18 May2022, https://warontherocks.com/2022/05/when-strongmen-invade-they-bring-their-pathologies-with-them/
51. Caitlin Talmadge, The Dictator’s Army, Cornell University Press, 2015, p. 162.
52. Kevin M. Woods et al., ‘Saddam’s Generals’, Institute for Defense Analyses, 2011, p. 20.
53. Ibid., p. 14.
54. Ibid., p. 20.
55. ‘Uzbekistan: Two Brutal Deaths in Custody’, Human Rights Watch, 9 August 2002,https://www.hrw.org/news/2002/08/09/uzbekistan-two-brutal-deaths-custody
56. Nick Paton Walsh, ‘Uzbek Mother Who Publicised “Boiling” Torture of Son Gets Hard Labour’, Guardian, 13 February 2004.
57. Andrea Koppell and Elise Labott, ‘US-Uzbek Ties Grow Despite Rights Concerns’, CNN, 12 March 2002,https://edition.cnn.com/2002/US/03/12/ret.uzbek.us/
58. ‘Joint Press Conference with President Islam Karimov’, Tashkent, Uzbekistan, 8 December 2001, US Department of State Archive,https://2001-2009.state.gov/secretary/former/powell/remarks/2001/dec/6749.htm
59. Daniel J. O’Connor, ‘Rethinking Uzbekistan: A Military View’, Military Review, March–April 2020,https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Journals/Military-Review/English-Edition-Archives/March-April-2020/OConnor-Rethinking-Uzbekistan/
Chapter 6: You Shoot, You Lose
1. Cited in Héctor Tobar, ‘Hugo Banzer, 75: Bolivian Dictator Turned President’, Los Angeles Times, 6 May 2002.
2. Susan Ratcliffe (ed.), Oxford Essential Quotations, Oxford University Press, 2017,https://www.oxfordreference.com/display/10.1093/acref/9780191843730.001.0001/q-oro-ed5-00007069
3. Barbara Geddes, Joseph Wright and Erica Frantz, How Dictatorships Work, Cambridge University Press, p. 179.
4. Gene Sharp, From Dictatorship to Democracy, Serpent’s Tail, 2012.
5. Kristian S. Gleditsch and Mauricio Rivera, ‘The Diffusion of Nonviolent Campaigns’, Journal of Conflict Resolution 61, no. 5 (2017),pp. 1120–45 at p. 1123.
6. A Serbian activist in conversation with the author, 16 February 2023.
7. Erica Chenoweth, Civil Resistance, Oxford University Press, 2021, p. 95.
8. Ibid., p. 114.
9. Ibid., p. 115.
10. Ibid.
11. See Christian Davenport, ‘State Repression and Political Order’, Annual Review of Political Science 10, no. 1 (2007), 1–23 at p. 7.
12. Erica Chenoweth and Maria J. Stephan, Why Civil Resistance Works, Columbia University Press, 2013.
13. ‘Ukraine: Excessive Force Against Protestors’, Human Rights Watch, 3 December 2013,https://www.hrw.org/news/2013/12/03/ukraine-excessive-force-against-protesters
14. Oksana Grytsenko and Shaun Walker, ‘Ukrainians Call for Yanukovych to Resign in Protests Sparked by EU U-turn’, Guardian, 2December 2013.
15. Hanna Arhirova, ‘10 years Later, a War-weary Ukraine Reflects on Events That Began Its Collision Course with Russia’, AssociatedPress News, 21 November 2023,https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-uprising-anniversary-russia-war-maidan-2f73f31a5aec45bd7dbcddae8f72edac
16. Susan Ormiston, ‘Remembering the 2014 Ukraine Revolution, Which Set the Stage for the 2022 Russian Invasion’, CBC News, 23February 2023, https://www.cbc.ca/news/ukraine-2014-euromaidan-1.6756384
17. See Daniel Byman and Jennifer Lind, ‘Pyongyang’s Survival Strategy: Tools of Authoritarian Control in North Korea’,International Security 35, no. 1 (2010), 44–74.
18. ‘Amnesty International Report 2022/23: The State of the World’s Human Rights’, Amnesty International, 27 March 2023,https://www.amnesty.org/en/documents/pol10/5670/2023/en/
19. ‘Russia: Police Raid Prominent Rights Group’, Human Rights Watch, 4 December 2008,https://www.hrw.org/news/2008/12/04/russia-police-raid-prominent-rights-group
20. Katherin Machalek, ‘Factsheet: Russia’s NGO Laws’, in ‘Contending with Putin’s Russia: A Call for American Leadership’,Freedom House, 6 February 2013, p. 11,https://freedomhouse.org/sites/default/files/2020-02/SR_Contending_with_Putins_Russia_PDF.pdf
21. Ibid., p. 12.
22. Andrew Roth, ‘Russian Court Orders Closure of Country’s Oldest Human Rights Group’, Guardian, 28 December 2021.
23. Mary Elise Sarotte, The Collapse, Basic Books, 2014, p. 9.
24. Matt Ford, ‘A Dictator’s Guide to Urban Design’, Atlantic, 21 February 2014.
25. Siddharth Varadarajan, ‘Dictatorship by Cartography’, Himal Southasian, February 2007.
26. Matt Ford, ‘A Dictator’s Guide to Urban Design’, Atlantic, 21 February 2014.
27. Yana Gorokhovaskaia and Isabel Linzer, ‘Defending Democracy in Exile’, Freedom House, June 2022, p. 4,https://freedomhouse.org/sites/default/files/2022-05/Complete_TransnationalRepressionReport2022_NEW_0.pdf
28. Ibid.
29. The depiction of Jia’s experience is based on Jia Zu, ‘I Will Never Forget the Tiannanmen Massacre’, Washington Post, 4 June1999.
30. Ibid.
31. Peter Ellingsen, ‘Remembering Tiananmen’, Sydney Morning Herald, 3 June 2014.
32. ‘Tiananmen 30 Years On: China’s Indelible Stain’, Amnesty International, 1 June 2019,https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2019/06/china-tiananmen-crackdown-30-years-on/
33. Nicholas D. Kristof, ‘Crackdown in Beijing; Troops Attack and Crush Beijing Protest; Thousands Fight Back, Scores Are Killed’, NewYork Times, 4 June 1989.
34. Louisa Lim, People’s Republic of Amnesia, Oxford University Press, 2014, p. 7.
35. Sheryl Wudunn, ‘In Beijing, Rage and Despair Over the Soldiers’ Brutality’, New York Times, 5 June 1989.
36. Lily Kuo, ‘China’s Other Tiananmens: 30 Years On’, Guardian, 2 June 2019,https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jun/02/chinas-other-tiananmens-30th-anniversary-1989-protests
37. Lim, People’s Republic of Amnesia, p. 189.
38. Deng Xiaoping, ‘Deng’s June 9 Speech: “We Faced a Rebellious Clique” and “Dregs of Society” ’, New York Times, 30 June1989.
39. Siegbert Schefke, Als die Angst die Seiten wechselte, Transit, 2019, pp. 61 and 62.
40. Ibid., p. 97.
41. Sarotte, The Collapse, p. 53.
42. Hartmut Zwahr, Ende einer Selbstzerstörung, Sax, 2014, p. 90.
43. Bernd-Lutz Lange and Sascha Lange, David gegen Goliath, Aufbau, 2019, pp. 82–4.
44. Zwahr, Das Ende einer Selbstzerstörung, p. 89.
45. See, for example, ibid., p. 90.
46. Ibid.
47. Sarotte, The Collapse, p. 71.
48. Ibid., p. 72.
49. Ibid., pp. 73–4.
50. Steven Levitsky and Lucan A. Way, ‘Linkage Versus Leverage: Rethinking the International Dimension of Regime Change’,Comparative Politics 38, no. 4 (2006), 379–400.
51. This manoeuvre is inspired by the real response of monarchies during the Arab Spring, as outlined in Yasmina Abouzzohour,‘Heavy Lies the Crown: The Survival of Arab Monarchies, 10 Years after the Arab Spring’, Brookings, 8 March 2021,https://www.brookings.edu/articles/heavy-lies-the-crown-the-survival-of-arab-monarchies-10-years-after-the-arab-spring/
Chapter 7: No Other Option
1. Efraim Karsh, ‘Conflict of Necessity’, Los Angeles Times, 30 March 2003.
2. ‘Assassination’, Encyclopaedia Britannica, 5 December 2023, https://www.britannica.com/topic/assassination
3. Barbara Schmitz, ‘War, Violence and Tyrannicide in the Book of Judith’, pp. 103–19 in Jan Liesen and Pancratius Beentjes (ed),Visions of Peace and Tales of War, De Gruyter, 2010, p. 112.
4. Moses I. Finley, The Ancient Greeks, Penguin, 1977, p. 58 cited in Shannon K. Brincat, ‘ “Death to Tyrants”: The Political Philosophyof Tyrannicide – Part 1’, Journal of International Political Theory 4, no. 2 (2008), 212–40 at p. 215.
5. Aristotle (trans. Terence Irwin), Nicomachean Ethics, Hackett Press, 2000, p. 36 cited in ibid., p. 217.
6. Ibid., pp. 216 and 218.
7. Augustine (trans. R.S. Pine-Coffin), Confessions, Penguin, 1961, p. 207 cited in ibid., p. 220.
8. ‘John of Salisbury’, Stanford Encyclopaedia of Philosophy, 27 April 2022, https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/john-salisbury/
9. Cary Nederman, ‘Three Concepts of Tyranny in Western Medieval Political Thought’, Contributions to the History of Concepts 14,no. 2 (2019), p. 9.
10. John of Salisbury (ed. Cary J. Nederman), Policraticus: Of the Frivolities of Courtiers and the Footprints of Philosophers, CambridgeUniversity Press, 1990, p. 210.
11. Nederman, ‘Three Concepts of Tyranny in Western Medieval Political Thought’, p. 9.
12. See Cary J. Nederman, ‘A Duty to Kill: John of Salisbury’s Theory of Tyrannicide’, Review of Politics 50, no. 3 (1988), 365–89.
13. Robert S. Miola, ‘Julius Caesar and the Tyrannicide Debate’, Renaissance Quarterly 38, no. 2 (1985), 271–89 at p. 274.
14. Benjamin F. Jones and Benjamin A. Olken, ‘Hit or Miss? The Effect of Assassinations on Institutions and War’, American EconomicJournal: Macroeconomics 1, no. 2 (2009), 55–87 at p. 56.
15. John Chin et al., ‘Reshaping the Threat Environment: Personalism, Coups, and Assassinations’, Comparative Political Studies 55,no. 4 (2022), 657–87.
16. The depiction of the assassination is in large part based on Frances Robles, ‘ “They Thought I Was Dead”: Haitian President’sWidow Recounts Assassination’, New York Times, 30 July 2021.
17. Ibid.
18. John Pacenti and Chris Cameron, ‘US Prosecutors Detail Plot to Kill Haitian President’, New York Times, 1 February 2023.
19. Ibid.
20. ‘Haiti President’s Assassination: What We Know So Far’, BBC, 1 February 2023,https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-57762246
21. Jones and Olken, ‘Hit or Miss?’, p. 62.
22. Chin et al., ‘Reshaping the Threat Environment’.
23. Ibid.
24. Elian Peltier and Raja Abdulrahim, ‘Can Russia Tame Wagner in Africa Without Destroying It?’, New York Times, 29 June 2023.
25. Ibid.
26. See Jason K. Stearns, Dancing in the Glory of Monsters, Public Affairs, 2012, p. 279.
27. Stuart Jeffries, ‘Revealed: How Africa’s Dictator Died at the Hands of his Boy Soldiers’, Guardian, 11 February 2001.
28. Chin et al., ‘Reshaping the Threat Environment’.
29. John Hoyt Williams, ‘Paraguayan Isolation under Dr. Francia: A Re-Evaluation’, Hispanic American Historical Review 52, no. 1(1972), 102–22 at p. 102.
30. Dalia Ventura, ‘Aimé Bonpland, el brillante botánico opacado por Alexander von Humboldt que se enamoró de Latinoamérica’,BBC, 8 January 2022, https://www.bbc.com/mundo/noticias-59593096
31. Stephen Bell, A Life in Shadow, Stanford University Press, 2010, p. 62.
32. Ventura, ‘Aimé Bonpland’.
33. Johann Rudolf Rengger, Historischer Versuch über die Revolution von Paraguay und die Dictatorial-Regierung von Dr. Francia, J. G.Cotta, 1827, p. 162.
34. Pjotr Sauer, ‘Russian Soldiers Say Commanders Used “Barrier Troops” to Stop Them from Retreating’, Guardian, 27 March2023.
35. Ivan Nechepurenko, ‘Putin Holds Highly Choreographed Meeting with Mothers of Russian Servicemen’, New York Times, 25November 2022.
36. Ibid.
37. Andrew Roth and Pjotr Sauer, ‘Putin Talks to Mothers of Soldiers Fighting in Ukraine in Staged Meeting’, Guardian, 25 November2022.
38. Ibid.
39. Zaryab Iqbal and Christopher Zorn, ‘Sic Semper Tyrannis? Power, Repression and Assassination Since the Second World War’,Journal of Politics 68:3 (2006), pp. 489–501 at p. 492.
40. Dan Williams, ‘After Duvalier: Haiti – A Scary Time for Voodoo’, Los Angeles Times, 7 March 1986.
41. ‘The Death and Legacy of Papa Doc Duvalier’, Time, 17 January 2011.
42. Albin Krebs, ‘Papa Doc, a Ruthless Dictator, Kept the Haitians in Illiteracy and Dire Poverty’, New York Times, 23 April 1971.
43. Williams, ‘After Duvalier’.
44. Homer Bigart, ‘Duvalier, 64, Dies in Haiti; Son, 19, Is New President’, New York Times, 23 April 1971.
45. Rick Atkinson, ‘US to Rely on Air Strikes if War Erupts’, Washington Post, 16 September 1990.
46. ‘Executive Order 12333 – United States intelligence activities’, part 2, section 11, US National Archives and RecordsAdministration, 1981, https://www.archives.gov/federal-register/codification/executive-order/12333.html
47. Frank Church et al., ‘Alleged Assassination Plots Involving Foreign Leaders – An Interim Report’, United States Senate, Report No.94-465, 20 November 1975, p. 255, https://www.intelligence.senate.gov/sites/default/files/94465.pdf
48. Ibid., p. 1.
49. Most of the details on the Blue House Raid are taken from Mark McDonald, ‘Failed North Korean Assassin Assimilates in theSouth’, New York Times, 17 December 2010.
50. Norimutsu Onishi, ‘South Korean Movie Unlocks Door on a Once-Secret Past’, New York Times, 15 February 2004.
51. Ivan Watson and Jake Kwon, ‘How a Plot to Kill Kim Il Sung Ended in Mutiny and Murder’, CNN, 19 February 2018,https://edition.cnn.com/2018/02/18/asia/south-korea-failed-assassination-squad-unit-684-intl/index.html
52. Onishi, ‘South Korean Movie Unlocks Door’.
53. Watson and Kwon, ‘How a Plot to Kill Kim Il Sung Ended in Mutiny and Murder’.
54. Ibid.
55. ‘34 Die as Korean Prisoners “Invade” Seoul’, New York Times, 24 August 1971.
56. Andrei Lankov, ‘How a Secret Plot to Assassinate North Korea’s Leader Spiraled Out of Control’, NK News, 7 August 2023,https://www.nknews.org/2023/08/how-a-secret-plot-to-assassinate-north-koreas-leader-spiraled-out-of-control/
57. Ibid.
58. Onishi, ‘South Korean Movie Unlocks Door’.
59. Ibid.
60. Ibid.
61. Lankov, ‘How a Secret Plot to Assassinate North Korea’s Leader Spiraled Out of Control’.
62. Choe Sang-Hun, ‘South Korea Plans “Decapitation Unit” to Try to Scare North’s Leaders’, New York Times, 12 September2017.
63. Ankit Panda, ‘South Korea’s “Decapitation” Strategy Against North Korea Has More Risks Than Benefits’, CarnegieEndowment for International Peace, 15 August 2022,https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/08/15/south-korea-s-decapitation-strategy-against-north-korea-has-more-risks-than-benefits-pub-87672
64. Ibid.
65. Ibid.
66. Megan DuBois, ‘North Korea’s Nuclear Fail-Safe’, Foreign Policy, 16 September 2022.
67. Shane Smith and Paul Bernstein, ‘North Korean Nuclear Command and Control: Alternatives and Implications’, Defense ThreatReduction Agency, August 2022,https://wmdcenter.ndu.edu/Portals/97/Documents/Publications/NK-Nuclear-Command-and-Control_Report.pdf
68. DuBois, ‘North Korea’s Nuclear Fail-Safe’.
69. Ibid.
70. This portrayal of the Venezuelan assassination attempt is based on Christoph Koettl and Barbara Marcolini, ‘A Closer Look at theDrone Attack on Maduro in Venezuela’, New York Times, 10 August 2018.
71. See Chin et al., ‘Reshaping the Threat Environment’.
Chapter 8: Be Careful What You Wish For
1. Ryan Chilcote and Aliaksandr Kudrytski, ‘Belarus Strongman Balances Between Ukraine War, Putin, EU’, Bloomberg, 2 April 2015.
2. Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Erica Frantz, ‘How Autocracies Fall’, Washington Quarterly 37, no. 1 (2014), 35–47 at p. 36.
3. Cited in Sarah J. Hummel, ‘Leader Age, Death, and Political Reform in Dictatorships’, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign,working paper, 12 December 2017, https://publish.illinois.edu/shummel/files/2017/12/LeaderDeath171106.pdf
4. Seva Gunitsky, interview with author, 12 January 2023.
5. Rob Matheson, ‘Sudanese Celebrate End of Omar al-Bashir’s 30-year Rule’, Al Jazeera, 11 April 2019,https://www.aljazeera.com/videos/2019/4/11/sudanese-celebrate-end-of-omar-al-bashirs-30-year-rule
6. The depiction of this story is largely based on the BBC video made by witnesses filming with their telephones, ‘Sudan’s LivestreamMassacre’, BBC, 12 July 2019, https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-africa-48956133
7. ‘They Were Shouting “Kill Them” ’, Human Rights Watch, 17 November 2019,https://www.hrw.org/report/2019/11/18/they-were-shouting-kill-them/sudans-violent-crackdown-protesters-khartoum
8. Ibid.
9. ‘Sudan’s Livestream Massacre’.
10. Ibid.
11. Michelle Gavin, ‘Sudan’s Coup: One Year Later’, Council on Foreign Relations, 24 October 2022,https://www.cfr.org/blog/sudans-coup-one-year-later
12. Aidan Lewis, ‘What is Happening in Sudan? Fighting in Khartoum Explained’, Reuters, 13 July 2023,https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/whats-behind-sudans-crisis-2023-04-17/
13. Declan Walsh and Abdi Latif Dahir, ‘War in Sudan: Who is Battling for Power, and Why It Hasn’t Stopped’, New York Times, 26October 2023.
14. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith, The Dictator’s Handbook, Public Affairs, 2012.
15. See Barbara Geddes, Joseph Wright and Erica Frantz, How Dictatorships Work, Cambridge University Press, 2018, p. 230.
16. Andrej Kokkonen and Anders Sundell, ‘Leader Succession and Civil War’, Comparative Political Studies 53, nos 3–4 (2019),434–68 at p. 434.
17. Andrej Kokkonen and Anders Sundell, ‘Delivering Stability: Primogeniture and Autocratic Survival in European Monarchies1000–1800’, Quality of Government Institute, Working Paper Series (3 April 2012), p. 4.
18. ‘Primogeniture and Ultimogeniture’, Encyclopaedia Britannica, 27 October 2023,https://www.britannica.com/topic/primogeniture
19. Kokkonen and Sundell, ‘Delivering Stability’, p. 6.
20. Xin Nong, ‘Informal Succession Institutions and Autocratic Survival: Evidence from Ancient China’, working paper, 3 March 2022,https://xin-nong.com/files/Informal_Succession_Xin_EHA.pdf
21. Kokkonen and Sundell, ‘Delivering Stability’, p. 4.
22. Anne Meng, ‘Winning the Game of Thrones: Leadership Succession in Modern Autocracies’, Journal of Conflict Resolution 65, no.5 (2021), 950–81.
23. Erica Frantz and Elizabeth A. Stein, ‘Countering Coups: Leadership Succession Rules in Dictatorships’, Comparative PoliticalStudies 50, no. 7 (2017), 935–62.
24. Chris Hodges, ‘Damascus Journal: Fist May Be of Iron, but is Assad’s Hand Weak?’, New York Times, 17 December 1991.
25. Jason Brownlee, ‘Hereditary Succession in Modern Autocracies’, World Politics 59, no. 4 (2007), 595–628 at p. 618.
26. Eyal Zisser, ‘Does Bashar al-Assad Rule Syria?’, Middle East Quarterly 10, no. 1 (2003), 15–23 at p. 17.
27. Amos Chapple, ‘What’s Changed? Armenia One Year After Revolution’, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 23 April 2019.
28. Ibid.
29. Erica Chenoweth and Maria J. Stephan, Why Civil Resistance Works, Columbia University Press, pp. 213–15.
30. See Markus Bayer, Felix S. Bethke and Daniel Lambach, ‘The Democratic Dividend of Nonviolent Resistance’, Journal of PeaceResearch 53, no. 6 (2016), 758–71.
31. Erica Frantz, Authoritarianism, Oxford University Press, p. 126.
32. George Derpanopoulos et al., ‘Are Coups Good for Democracy?’, Research and Politics 3, no. 1 (2016), 1–7 at p. 2.
33. John J. Chin, David B. Carter and Joseph G. Wright, ‘The Varieties of Coups d’Etat: Introducing the Colpus Dataset’, InternationalStudies Quarterly 65, no. 4 (2021), 1040–51.
34. Paul Collier and Anke Hoeffler, ‘Coup Traps: Why Does Africa have so many Coups d’Etat?’, working paper, Centre for the Studyof African Economies, August 2005, https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:49097086-8505-4eb2-8174-314ce1aa3ebb
35. Ibid.
36. See, for example, Clayton L. Thyne and Jonathan M. Powell, ‘Coup d’Etat or Coup d’Autocracy? How Coups ImpactDemocratization, 1950–2008’, Foreign Policy Analysis 12, no. 2 (2016), pp. 192–213.
37. Cited in Benjamin F. Jones and Benjamin A. Olken, ‘Do Assassins Really Change History?’, New York Times, 10 April 2015.
38. Benjamin F. Jones and Benjamin A. Olken, ‘Hit or Miss? The Effect of Assassinations on Institutions and War’, American EconomicJournal: Macroeconomics 1, no. 2 (2009), pp. 55–87 at p. 70.
39. Giuditta Fontana, Markus B. Siewert and Christalla Yakinthou, ‘Managing War-to-Peace Transitions after Intra-State Conflicts:Configurations of Successful Peace Processes’, Journal of Intervention and Statebuilding 15, no. 1 (2023), 25–47 at p. 25.
40. For a discussion of the risks of losing wars, see Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Erica Frantz, ‘Putin’s Forever War’, Foreign Affairs, 23March 2023, and Sarah E. Croco, ‘The Decider’s Dilemma: Leader Culpability, War Outcomes, and Domestic Punishment’, AmericanPolitical Science Review 105, no. 3 (2011), 457–77.
41. See Barbara F. Walter, ‘Conflict Relapse and the Sustainability of Post-Conflict Peace’, World Bank, World Development Report2011 Background Paper, 13 September 2010,https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/3633592d-58d0-5ed5-9394-aea81448f25c/content
42. The depiction of the attack is mostly based on ‘Burundi: The Gatumba Massacre’, Human Rights Watch, September 2004,https://www.hrw.org/sites/default/files/reports/burundi0904.pdf
43. Ibid.
44. Ibid.
45. Zoeann Murphy, ‘ “He was Alive. They Burned Him”: Congolese Refugees Call for Long-overdue Justice’, Washington Post, 19September 2014.
46. ‘UN Demands Justice After Massacre of 150 Refugees in Burundi’, New York Times, 16 August 2004.
47. Agathon Rwasa, interview with author, 14 March 2023.
48. ‘Burundi: 15 Years On, No Justice for Gatumba Massacre’, Human Rights Watch, 13 August 2019,https://www.hrw.org/news/2019/08/13/burundi-15-years-no-justice-gatumba-massacre
49. Georges Ibrahim Tounkara, ‘Burundi: Ex-rebel Agathon Rwasa to Run for President’, Deutsche Welle, 17 February 2020,https://www.dw.com/en/burundi-ex-rebel-agathon-rwasa-to-run-for-president/a-52404700
50. Marielle Debos, Living by the Gun in Chad, Zed Books, 2016, p. 103.
51. ‘2003‒2011: The Iraq War’, Council on Foreign Relations, https://www.cfr.org/timeline/iraq-war
52. ‘L. Paul Bremer III’, Encyclopaedia Britannica, 26 September 2023, https://www.britannica.com/biography/L-Paul-Bremer-III
53. L. Paul Bremer, ‘Coalition Provisional Authority Order Number 1’, Coalition Provisional Authority, 16 May 2003.
54. L. Paul Bremer, ‘Coalition Provisional Authority Order Number 2’, Coalition Provisional Authority, 23 May 2003.
55. James P. Pfiffner, ‘US Blunders in Iraq: De-Baathification and Disbanding the Army’, Intelligence and National Security 25, no. 1(2010), 76–85 at p. 79.
56. Cited in ibid., p. 79.
57. Pfiffner, ‘US Blunders in Iraq’, at p. 76.
58. Bruce R. Pirnie and Edward O’Connell, Counterinsurgency in Iraq (2003–2006), RAND Corporation, 2008.
59. ‘The Gamble: Key Documents’, Washington Post, 7 February 2009.
60. Tom Bowman, ‘As the Iraq War Ends, Reassessing the US Surge’, National Public Radio, 16 December 2011,https://www.npr.org/2011/12/16/143832121/as-the-iraq-war-ends-reassessing-the-u-s-surge
61. Alexander B. Downes and Jonathan Monten, ‘Forced to be Free? Why Foreign-Imposed Regime Change Rarely Leads toDemocratization’, International Security 37, no. 4 (2013), 90–131 at p. 129.
62. For a discussion of intervening states’ motivations, see Jeffrey Pickering and Mark Peceny, ‘Forging Democracy at Gunpoint’,International Studies Quarterly 50, no. 3 (2006), 539–59.
63. Cited in Arthur M. Schlesinger, A Thousand Days: John F. Kennedy in the White House, Houghton Mifflin, 1965, p. 769.
64. See Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and George W. Downs, ‘Intervention and Democracy’, International Organization 60, no. 3 (2006),627–49 at p. 632.
65. Downes and Monten, ‘Forced to Be Free?’, p. 94.
66. Ibid.
67. Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Erica Frantz, ‘When Dictators Die’, Foreign Policy, 10 September 2015.
68. Sarah J. Hummel, ‘Leader Age, Death and Political Reform in Dictatorships’, working paper, University of Illinois atUrbana-Champaign, 12 December 2017, https://publish.illinois.edu/shummel/files/2017/12/LeaderDeath171106.pdf
69. For a discussion of the way tyrants can concentrate power in their hands, see Milan W. Svolik, The Politics of Authoritarian Rule,Cambridge University Press, 2012.
70. Jun Koga Sudduth and Curtis Bell, ‘The Rise Predicts the Fall: How the Method of Leader Entry Affects the Method of LeaderRemoval in Dictatorships’, International Studies Quarterly 62, no. 1 (2018), 145–59.
Chapter 9: How to Topple a Tyrant
1. Cited in David Hoffman, ‘Putin Faces a State of Disorder’, Washington Post, 3 January 2000.
2. ‘Guaido Versus Maduro: Who Backs Venezuela’s Two Presidents?’, Reuters, 24 January 2019.
3. Alan Riding, ‘US Leads Efforts to Oust Somoza and Lead Nicaragua to Democracy’, New York Times, 16 November 1978.
4. Mateo Cayetano Jarquin, ‘A Latin American Revolution: The Sandinistas, the Cold War, and Political Change in the Region,1977–1990’, doctoral dissertation, 2019, Harvard University, Graduate School of Arts & Sciences, p. 74.
5. Jason Brownlee, ‘Hereditary Succession in Modern Autocracies’, World Politics 59, no. 4 (2007), 595–628 at p. 613.
6. The depiction of the NSO Group in Mexico is largely based on Natalie Kitroeff and Ronen Bergman, ‘How Mexico Became theBiggest User of the World’s Most Notorious Spy Tool’, New York Times, 18 April 2023.
7. Ronen Bergman and Mark Mazzetti, ‘The Battle for the World’s Most Powerful Cyberweapon’, New York Times Magazine, 28January 2022.
8. Ibid.
9. ‘The Persecution of Ahmed Mansoor’, Human Rights Watch, 27 January 2021,https://www.hrw.org/report/2021/01/27/persecution-ahmed-mansoor/how-united-arab-emirates-silenced-its-most-famous-human
10. Bergman and Mazzetti, ‘The Battle for the World’s Most Powerful Cyberweapon’.
11. Marcel Dirsus and David Landry, ‘Interview [with Agathe Demarais]: Sanctions’, Hundred, 21 November 2022,https://thehundred.substack.com/p/interview-sanctions
12. Ibid.
13. Ibid.
14. Agathe Demarais, interview with author, 13 April 2023.
15. Abel Escribà-Folch and Joseph Wright, ‘Dealing with Tyranny: International Sanctions and the Survival of Authoritarian Rulers’,International Studies Quarterly 54, no. 2 (2010), 335–59 at p. 335.
16. Ibid., p. 341.
17. Ibid., p. 355.
18. Janis Kluge cited in Jeanne Wahlen and Catherine Belton, ‘Sanctions Haven’t Stopped Russia, But a New Oil Ban Could CutDeeper’, Washington Post, 15 February 2023.
19. The depiction of Bobi Wine’s arrest is mostly based on Abdi Latif Dahir, ‘Uganda’s Top Opposition Leader Says He is UnderHouse Arrest’, New York Times, 5 October 2023.
20. Ibid.
21. For more information on the Gambian opposition, see Jeffrey Smith, ‘Gambia’s Opposition Unites’, Foreign Affairs, 25November 2016.
22. See Yana Gorokhovaskaia and Isabel Linzer, ‘Defending Democracy in Exile’, Freedom House, June 2022, p. 4,https://freedomhouse.org/sites/default/files/2022-05/Complete_TransnationalRepressionReport2022_NEW_0.pdf
23. Rory Cormac, ‘So you could argue that . . .’, Twitter (renamed ‘X’), 7 March 2023,https://x.com/RoryCormac/status/1633147729114193923?s=20
24. See Milan W. Svolik, The Politics of Authoritarian Rule, Cambridge University Press, 2012.
25. ‘Shareholder Structure’, Volkswagen Group, 31 December 2022,https://www.volkswagen-group.com/en/shareholder-structure-15951
26. Roshan Goswami, ‘Lucid, Activision, EA, Uber: Here’s Where Saudi Arabia’s Sovereign Wealth Fund Has Invested’, CNBC, 11July 2023, https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/11/activision-ea-uber-heres-where-saudi-arabias-pif-has-invested.html
27. The portrayal of ZunZuneo here is mostly based on an Associated Press article, ‘US Secretly Created “Cuban Twitter” to StirUnrest and Undermine Government’, Guardian, 3 April 2014.
28. Ibid.
29. Ibid.
30. Associated Press, ‘US Aid Chief Faces Questions Over “Cuban Twitter” ’, Guardian, 8 April 2014.
31. ‘Sputnik and the Space Race’, National Archives, Dwight D. Eisenhower Library,https://www.eisenhowerlibrary.gov/research/online-documents/sputnik-and-space-race
32. Amy Ryan and Gary Keeley, ‘Intelligence Success or Failure?’, Studies in Intelligence 61, no. 3 (2017), extracts.
33. See, for example, Christopher Ingraham, ‘Satellite Data Strongly Suggests that China, Russia and Other Authoritarian Countries AreFudging Their GDP Reports’, Washington Post, 15 May 2018.
34. Andrew Natsios, ‘Don’t Play Politics with Hunger’, Washington Post, 9 February 1997, cited in Emma Campbell, ‘Famine inNorth Korea: humanitarian policy in the late 1990s’, Overseas Development Institute, HPG Working Paper, December 2015, p. 6,https://cdn.odi.org/media/documents/10213.pdf
35. Campbell, ‘Famine in North Korea’, p. 6.
36. Ibid., p. 8.
37. Ibid., p. 5.
38. Susan Ratcliffe (ed.), Oxford Essential Quotations, Oxford University Press, 2016,https://www.oxfordreference.com/display/10.1093/acref/9780191826719.001.0001/q-oro-ed4-00018657
39. Cited in David Rothkopf, ‘Why It’s Too Early to Tell How History Will Judge the Iran and Greece Deals’, Foreign Policy, 14 July2015.
40. Ratcliffe, Oxford Essential Quotations.
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